Though they might be well intentioned, pure EVs are far from becoming a reality anytime soon. Sad, but true.
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The Tesla Roadster is undeniably efficient; it delivers roughly 105 miles per electric gallon. But can the Silicon Valley electrocar company deliver them?
Get ready to pull the plug: Tesla is done. Well, almost. While the fledgling electrocar specialists haven’t hung a “gone fishing” sign on the front door just yet, it might be just a matter of time. That isn’t changing anytime soon, regardless of how much money company founder and newly appointed CEO Elon Musk can scare up for his pet project. And this group of Silicon Valley geniuses isn’t alone. You can simply add Tesla’s name to the long list of electric car builders that have talked a big game and failed to deliver.
You remember Tesla, right? It’s that band of Internet whiz kids, backed with Google bucks, who claimed its electric Roadster would revolutionize automobiles and show the Detroit dinosaurs how things could be done. You needed buckets to catch the slobbering hype in the media, a reservoir to hold the wishful thinking. But the company lacked two key elements: experience in designing, building and selling cars and the billions of dollars needed to create a real car company. Plus, it’s only offering is a two-seat, $110,000 sports car that makes as much sense for the fuel-crunched, cash-poor American family as a lunar lander.
Now, Tesla is in full damage-control mode. The Roadster has been endlessly delayed, plagued by a balky transmission and only a handful (60, at last count; all of which have the inferior transmission) of the 1,200 pre-orders have trickled out to customers. Though the California-based automaker recently received an influx of $40 million, it had to lay off more than a quarter of its employees and announce it only had $9 million in the bank. Not enough to finish developing its Model S, a $70,000 electric sports sedan whose 2010 launch has been — you guessed it — delayed. I’ll put this nicely: You might think twice about putting down a deposit.
Now let me emphasize that Tesla, unlike ZAP and other notorious P.T. Barnums of electric vehicles, has always impressed me as a company of sincere, dedicated professionals. These guys believe in their car. They believe that electric vehicles, or EVs, can help break the world’s dependence on fossil fuels and reduce pollution. You have to respect the company’s motives and passion. But its execution has a lot to be desired. The same can be said about Fisker. It projected a production run of about 15,000 Quantum Hybrid sports cars, but has yet to produce a single one.
Discuss: What do you think about the future of electric vehicles?
While the media isn’t about to apologize and clean up the spilled ink on Tesla — an Exxon Valdez-sized undertaking — let’s at least file a lesson for the next time a high-voltage savior arrives. It’s time to stop falling for the hype. After nearly a century of fitful development, electric cars still aren’t ready for America. And America isn’t ready for electric cars. The Tesla is no different than General Motors’ EV1 of the late ‘90s. These cars may have been ahead of their time. But they weren’t ready for prime time.
Before you EV fans strap me to a 10,000-volt chair, let me be clear: I’m convinced that electricity will play a bigger near-term role than, say, hydrogen fuel cells. But I’ve long argued that 100 percent battery-powered cars face a psychological barrier, far beyond what hybrids face. What really scares consumers, beyond the unfamiliar technology, is the idea of being stranded miles from home and the nearest electrical outlet.
General Motors has come up with a name for it: range anxiety. It’s the reason that GM and Toyota have no interest in following Tesla’s lead with a pure EV. The audience is just too limited. Are you really ready for a car that might travel 200 miles at best, and then need up to eight hours to fully recharge? Be honest. If you are, you better call grandma and tell her you’re going to be late. If you’re an urban apartment dweller, as many green-minded folks are, you probably have no convenient outlet to recharge. Parking garages and curbsides could be wired up someday, but that day isn’t now. All those New Yorkers and San Franciscans who might love an EV probably couldn’t take the plunge, lacking a handy way to charge it.
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Although the battery-powered Nissan Denki Cube shown here is a one-off concept, Nissan’s new line of EVs is expected to look similar and offer many of the same features.
Nissan says it will buck the trend and offer an electric car in the U.S. and Japan by 2010. That would make Nissan, which until recently dismissed the potential of EVs, the first major automaker to market a fully electric car in America.
Instead, GM and Toyota have targeted 2010 to release their first plug-in cars that travel farther on electric power than current hybrids. And these so-called Extended Range Electric Vehicles are backed up by gasoline engines, reassuring buyers that they can drive them anywhere, anytime, any distance.
For GM, that car is the high-profile Chevrolet Volt, the car GM hopes can help reverse its image and fortunes. I recently pored over the production version of the Volt in New York with its designer Bob Boniface and chief engineer Frank Weber.
The four-passenger hatchback sedan combines a sophisticated lithium-ion battery pack with an efficient 150-horsepower gas engine. Unlike today’s hybrids, the gas engine never powers the wheels, but sits in reserve to generate electricity when the battery runs dry. The Volt can travel the first 40 miles on battery power alone. Since 80 percent of Americans commute 40 miles or less round-trip, those people could drive to work every day without ever using a drop of gasoline. That 40-mile run would add roughly 80 cents to your monthly electric bill, a measly $4 a week to cover 200 miles. If you drive even 60 miles a day, the Volt would still deliver the equivalent of 150 miles per gallon.
The critical part is that you plug in the Volt to maximize efficiency, but you’re never forced to plug it in. You can drive it cross-country, stopping at gas stations like any other car. After 40 miles of electric power, the gas engine automatically kicks in to extend the total driving range to over 400 miles. GM says the Volt would save buyers $1,500 a year in gasoline, even compared to a car that gets a healthy 30 miles per gallon.
GM’s Weber said that “most buyers simply will not accept” a car that can’t drive hundreds of miles at a pop, or that inconveniences them for even a few minutes.
Watch Video: Chevy Charges Up Volt
The Volt sounds great on paper but still faces challenges, not least of which is the cost — driven by its pricey lithium-ion battery pack. GM hasn’t released a price but, reading between the lines, it’s looking more and more like the Volt will top $35,000. That’s far more than you’d pay for a comparable family sedan, but the Volt also comes with a $7,500 federal tax credit. In plain English, that means $7,500 straight off your tax bill. That’s a lot of sweetener, courtesy of a GM-friendly provision written into the recent Wall Street bailout. Toyota will fire back with a plug-in Prius, although the Toyota will apparently be eligible for a much smaller tax credit.
But with history as a guide, I’m keeping my expectations modest on the Volt. If GM can keep the price under $40,000, and sell maybe 10,000 in the first year, I would consider that a monumental success. Remember that hybrids have been on sale for over a decade, and still hold less than 3 percent of the market. And that’s for cars that you don’t plug in.
Plug-in hybrids may not be as sexy as the Tesla fantasy. But a rich man’s fantasy doesn’t pay the bills, cut pollution or foster energy independence. The plug-in hybrid can play in the real world, rescuing real Americans from high energy prices.
A Michigan native raised and forged in Detroit and a former auto critic at the Detroit Free Press, Lawrence Ulrich now lives in Brooklyn, New York. His reviews and features appear regularly in The New York Times, Robb Report, Popular Science and Travel + Leisure Golf.
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Source: http://editorial.autos.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=720175&topart=newcarresearch
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